Political Outlook Guide · Issue No. 01

Brazil after the election: what to expect until the 2027 inauguration

Election results, continuity of government, the balance of power in Congress and in the states, and the agenda that the Executive, the Legislature and the Supreme Court must address by December.

Brasília, 26 October 2026
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Original Portuguese edition (PDF)
Brazil after the election: what to expect until the 2027 inauguration
51.79%
of valid votes for Lula in the run-off
124 of 513
deputies from government parties
27
provisional-measure deadlines before the recess
R$ 5.05 tn
in expenditure in the 2027 Budget Bill
In this guide
01
Presidential election results

Lula is re-elected to a fourth term after reversing the first-round result

With 51.79% of valid votes, Lula defeats Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race.

02
Transition between consecutive terms

Re-election opens a period of political reorganisation and new priorities

Continuity of government does away with a conventional administrative transition, but it opens a period of assessing results, rebuilding the congressional base and adjusting the cabinet structure.

03
Congressional base and governors

A minority government in both Houses and in the states

For an absolute majority, Lula needs 133 more deputies and 26 more senators from outside his own camp.

04
Transition of members of Congress

From certification to swearing-in: the legislature turns over on 1 February

The Chamber and the Senate follow their own rites to receive those elected and close the terms of those leaving.

05
Government priorities for 2026

Eight weeks to test the base with the current Congress

Public security heads the queue, regulation of the end of the 6x1 schedule races against the clock and the digital agenda is back on the table.

06
Provisional measures and the 2027 Budget

Congress faces 27 provisional-measure deadlines before the recess

Passage of the Budget Guidelines Law and the Annual Budget Law will be one of Congress's top priorities at the close of the legislative year.

07
Outlook for Supreme Court decisions

With the election over, the Supreme Court returns to sensitive cases

Cases postponed so as not to interfere with the election return to the spotlight, along with follow-ups to October's tax rulings.

Brazil after the election: what to expect until the 2027 inauguration
Download the full guide ↓

Informational material; it does not constitute legal advice. Data as of 26 Oct 2026. English translation of the Portuguese original; in case of discrepancy, the Portuguese version prevails.

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